According to the Washington Post’s Election Lab, there is currently an 86 percent chance that the Republicans will take over the Senate. To tout this finding, the Post introduces the story with this headline:
Our election model says Republicans have an 86 percent chance of winning the Senate. Here’s why that might be wrong.
Well, then. Nate Silver goes against historical trend and predicts Obama’s 2012 re-election, and he assumes political rock star status. Predict a successful Republican election cycle, and your own paper buries your lede.